The Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program (MPNP) is no longer a favorable pathway for most LMIA (Labour Market Impact Assessment) work permit holders. While LMIA used to offer a strong route to permanent residency, recent trends show a sharp decline in success rates.
A candidate with an LMIA job offers, high language proficiency (CLB 8), and strong supporting factors can score up to 875 points under MPNP. Such a profile still has a strong chance of receiving an invitation. However, most LMIA applicants do not meet this ideal profile. Instead, they typically have average language scores and limited education, which brings their score down to around 718. With current trends, a score of 718 offers little to no chance of receiving an MPNP invitation.
Two main factors are contributing to this negative trend:
– Stricter Federal Immigration Policies – These have made it harder to progress through provincial programs.
– A 50% Reduction in MPNP Quota – Manitoba is now selecting fewer candidates overall, leading to more competition and higher cut-off scores.
From 2015 to 2023, the MPNP process was far more accessible. The minimum draw scores during those years typically ranged between 375 and 629, and the pathway to permanent residency was relatively smooth and predictable. However, that landscape has changed. Today, applicants are facing significantly higher scores and much longer wait times.
The situation may not improve anytime soon. According to a 10-year data analysis, MPNP scores may only return to more manageable levels by late 2027 or 2028. In the meantime, LMIA work permit holders are advised to maintain their legal status, continue working with their designated employer in Manitoba, and be prepared to wait until draw scores become more favorable again.
