As Express Entry applicants await the next Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draw, misinformation is spreading rapidly on social media. Many hopeful candidates are anticipating a CRS score below 500—but the data says otherwise.
Let’s break down what recent trends and statistics tell us about where the CEC draws are likely headed in 2025. While no one can guarantee an exact number, data-driven forecasting, based on historical trends, current pool composition, and draw volumes can accurately estimate the range.
With the 2024 removal of LMIA job offer points, around 5,740 candidates lost significant CRS points. This move aimed to level the playing field but also intensified competition within the CEC category.
In 2024, 10 CEC-specific draws were held and 26,500 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) issued.
In 2025, 4 draws were completed and 9,850 ITAs were issued.
Despite the widespread belief that scores will drop below 500, the most realistic forecast shows that Sub-500 scores are highly unlikely under current conditions.
CEC draw scores might drop only if:
– Draw sizes increase dramatically (15,000+ ITAs per draw)
– Draw frequency rises (e.g., weekly instead of bi-weekly)
– A targeted occupation-based CEC draw is introduced
Until then, expect high cutoffs and fierce competition. Aim for a CRS score of 520+ to stay competitive and update your profile regularly to reflect any new qualifications or language test results.
Consider PNP streams if you’re consistently below the 500 range and Work with a licensed immigration professional to explore all options.
At A&M Canadian Immigration Law Corporation, our Winnipeg-based team of immigration lawyers can help you assess and improve your Express Entry profile and identify opportunities for PNP nomination and explore alternate PR pathways suited to your profile.
Book a Free Consultation today with A&M Canadian Immigration Law Corporation.
